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Forecast Accuracy Starts with a Bias-Free Assessment

Behavioral economists often talk of “the planning fallacy” – which describes the phenomenon in which people assume best-case scenarios (or “optimism bias”) regarding how much time a task will take or its ultimate cost.

This is certainly true when it comes to budgeting and forecasting capital projects. In fact, our independent research revealed that companies with large Capex portfolios exceed Capex budgets on average by 10% or more 52% of the time.

So what can you do about it? Understand the role bias plays in budgeting and forecasting. 

Victor Riccardi joined us – a visiting professor of finance and editor of seven Social Science Research Network (SSRN) journals on the topics of behavioral finance, behavioral economics, decision making under risk, and uncertainty, and more. Professor Ricciardi provided compelling insight into the emerging field of corporate behavioral finance and how leaders in FP&A and beyond should be thinking about it.

We’ll show you how automating essential tasks such as portfolio management, ROI modeling, risk assessment, approval workflow and re-forecasting with actuals can be a game-changer. We’ll also demonstrate Finario’s new Finario Predict feature which leverages reference class forecasting for better accuracy and insight.